Fourth wave looms for Western Cape as new Covid-19 variant drives resurgence

The Western Cape has entered a period of resurgence of Covid-19 cases — mainly driven by the Omicron variant of the coronavirus — but is still a few weeks away from entering the fourth wave of the pandemic.

Gauteng remains the epicentre of the spread of the Omicron variant with hospitalisations increasing steeply in keeping with case numbers, but all provinces have experienced an uptick in cases except the Northern Cape.

So far 16 confirmed sequenced cases of Omicron have been detected in the Western Cape over the past two weeks. However, using proxy markers for the variant, more than 80% of about 1,300-1,500 PCR tests done last week made it likely that Omicron was driving the majority of cases over the last seven days in every geographic area of the province, provincial head of health Keith Cloete said on Thursday in the weekly briefing led by Western Cape premier Alan Winde.

Proxy markers give an indication of Omicron before genomic sequencing is done in the laboratory, which can take about two weeks.

Cloete said a resurgence was when daily cases rose more than 20% on more than seven consecutive days, while entry into a fourth wave would occur when the daily number of new cases equalled at least a third of those at the peak of the third wave. That was still a few weeks away.

“Our week-on-week percentage change in the seven-day moving average of new cases has now been more than 20% daily for more than a week, indicating that we have now officially entered a resurgence,” Cloete said.

The prediction is for a very large increase in the absolute number of cases in the coming weeks in the Western Cape.

The number of daily cases in the province had averaged more than 200 a day over the last seven days and the positivity rate — the number of positive cases detected in testing — was on the rise, at 8.2%. This had not yet translated into an increase in hospitalisations, which were averaging about 11 a day, while deaths remained low at less than two a day. Hospitalisations were expected to increase in the next two weeks.

The reproduction rate — that is the number of cases generated by one case — is standing at 2, which means a doubling in the number of cases. This is the highest reproduction rate experienced in the province even when compared with the second and third waves.

“Although the numbers remain relatively low, the steep increase is concerning and we advise caution as we await more details on the impact of Omicron,” Cloete said. The Cape Town metro had seen a sharp increase of 262% in the number of cases, though Cloete pointed out that this was coming off a low base. The Garden Route had also seen a rapid increase of 150% in the number of cases and the Cape winelands at 136%.

The transmissibility of Omicron and its severity has yet to be determined but Cloete said there was some evidence of reinfection of those who had previously been infected or had been vaccinated.

On vaccinations, Cloete noted that as at Wednesday, the percentage of the national adult population fully vaccinated was 36.1% compared with 42.88% in the Western Cape. A total of 2.5-million people remain unvaccinated in the province. He predicted 120,000 vaccinations would take place in the coming week, higher than the 96,914 last week but still below the target of 200,000 a week.

The national department of health has declared December 3-10 “Vooma Week”. During this period, all provinces have been requested to increase the number of vaccination sites, especially in travel hubs, shopping malls and recreational areas. During the previous two Vooma weekends in October and November, there were a combined total of just under 650,000 vaccinations.

There are 4-million people nationwide aged 50 years and older who have not been jabbed.