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Beyond the metros: an election preview

• Candidates seek votes against a troubled background of public disenchantment with political parties as services fail and ageing infrastructure deteriorates

Wayne Sussman Sussman is an independent election analyst.

Much of the coverage of the 2021 local government elections rests on the eight metros. There are a few municipalities in play in this election.

This article focuses on two municipalities, which are centred on mining activity, two of which are centred on two industrial towns mired in service delivery challenges and a harbour town that was comfortably won by the DA in 2016, but is marginal in 2021. Rustenburg, North West

This was the only municipality in the North West where the ANC fell below 50% in 2016. The EFF came second here in 2016, but chose to sit outside government. Both it and the DA agreed to back a provincial party, the Forum 4 Service Delivery (F4SD) when choosing to elect the mayor. A small, local party called the Botho Community Movement (BCM) ended up backing the ANC and its coalition partner the African Independent Congress (AIC) to form a majority.

The ANC/AIC/BCM coalition has lasted its full term. There were teething problems with the BCM threatening to divorce the ANC, but the parties patched things up.

Despite the platinum boom, there is little visible sign that the good times have rolled on to the municipality. Rustenburg’s rapid transport project is well behind schedule, even though it was launched in 2009. There are also challenges with regard to ageing infrastructure. Sewage leaks and water shortages are a common challenge here.

The ANC will not only have to contend with the EFF. There are a range of local parties, which include the Tsogang Civic Movement (TCM). The TCM is a forum that lobbies for employment and enterprise development for communities around the mines.

There are also 32 independent candidates running this time, well up from the five independents who contested in 2016. These include two who were elected as ANC ward councillors in the last term.

The battle between the DA and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) should be fierce. The FF+ has won four successive byelections off the DA in the North West since 2019. The party will hope its appeal spreads to the platinum belt.

The EFF will hope that its populist message can lift the party again in Rustenburg and that enough local parties and independents can take votes off the ANC and bring them under 50% again so that they can form a government here.

Metsimaholo (Sasolburg), Free State

Key economic activities: petrochemicals, energy

The ANC lost power here in 2016, when the DA, a local party

the Metsimaholo Community Association (MCA) and the FF+ formed a government with the outside support of the EFF in this municipality on the Vaal River.

This unlikely union was short-lived as the larger parties battled to work with the MCA and the council was dissolved and the voters of Sasolburg and surrounds went to the polls again. The SACP in Metsimaholo broke away from the tripartite alliance and went alone.

The ANC patched together a coalition with the SACP and three other smaller parties, including the MCA to win back control of Metsimaholo.

The SACP were given the mayoral chain and this coalition has held since late 2017. The SACP will be running under the ANC banner for this election with SACP mayor, Lindiwe Tshongwe, top of the ANC proportional representation (PR) list.

Challenges in this municipality include road maintenance and infrastructure development.

The ANC could fall short of an outright majority again. The race for second will be between the DA and EFF. If the FF+ attracts a lot of DA voters, the EFF could pip the DA for that second spot. The FF+ has a good chance of improving its showing here and finishing fourth.

Three councillors, one each from the ANC, DA and EFF are running as independents. The MCA will be running again, as will a few other local parties who will hope to win election to council.

Steve Tshwete (Middelburg) Mpumalanga

Key economic activities: coal, stainless steel

Mpumalanga was the only province in which the ANC won every municipality outright in 2016. The ANC won a comfortable majority in Steve Tshwete in 2016, winning 32 out of 58 seats. Steve Tshwete is one of two municipalities in the province in which the ANC’s perfect record in local

government elections could come under threat.

Steve Tshwete is considered one of the better run municipalities in Mpumalanga. The ANC in Middelburg will hope that its good record here will win it another turn at the wheel on November 1. A challenge for the municipality is that coal continues to be a less attractive commodity.

This is not good news, even if this is a relative oasis in coal country. A new kid on the block is the Middelburg and Hendrina Residents Front (MHRF). The party was founded by two former ANC mayors of the town, Ben Mokoena and Mike Masina. The party came second in a by-election here in May, but would have wanted to garner more than the 21% of the vote it obtained. If it can improve on these results across the municipality, the ANC’s majority could be in question.

The DA is the official opposition in the municipality. Its mayoral candidate is Bosman Grobler, a member of the provincial legislature and former lock for the Pumas rugby team. A former ANC speaker is also running as an independent candidate.

The EFF replaced the DA as the official opposition in Mpumalanga in 2019. It will fancy its chances of significantly improving on the seven seats it has.

The FF+ will want to capitalise on disenchanted DA voters in this municipality. Emfuleni (Vanderbijlpark), Gauteng

Key industry: steel

Sharpeville, Sebokeng and Boipatong are stark reminders of the darkest days of apartheid and the role the ANC and the Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC) played in the struggle against the regime. A visit to the Boipatong museum to learn about the horrific massacre in 1992 is emblematic of the municipality. The museum is often closed. When you can gain access to it, you will see a new museum that is already looking jaded. The grass is often left uncut, and the site is neglected.

Here you see how on the one hand, the ties to the ANC (and the PAC) are understandably strong. This is a geography etched in the political history of the country, but the collapse of service delivery, with continuing water shortages, lack of refuse collection, power outages, lack of street lights and poor road conditions have made those strong ties as flimsy as ever. Recent images of council vehicles being impounded because of unpaid debts reinforce the narrative of things being horribly awry in Emfuleni.

This municipality has been under administration since 2018. Clergyman Gift Moerane was sent in to steady the ship and navigate the political infighting within the ANC.

He tried hard but as the election nears, things have not improved. Moerane is not available for election.

The EFF and African Transformation Movement (ATM) are best poised to take advantage of the ANC’s vulnerabilities here. The battle between the DA and the FF+ is also expected to be competitive in traditional DA areas.

Mmusi Maimane has endorsed the New Horizon Movement. It is a regional party that is hoping to make a dent here. Considering all of Maimane’s endorsements, this might be the hardest terrain for his charges to succeed.

The ANC will roll up its sleeves here and believe that it can unite the opposing factions and get over the line again and win the municipality outright. It knows that is bound to be its toughest test yet.

Saldanha Bay, Western Cape

Key industries: fishing, port

The mothballing of Saldanha Steel saw a big employer in the town shedding most of its jobs. This was devastating for this west coast municipality.

The DA won an outright majority here in 2016. The party will have its work cut out this time as it faces threats from GOOD, Patriotic Alliance (PA) and the FF+. The DA goes into this election holding 17 of the 27 seats. GOOD ran the DA close in a Vredenburg ward in 2020. The party will be bullish about election day in Saldanha Bay.

The PA has recruited two experienced ANC leaders who have a strong standing in the community. Sammy Claassen is a political veteran. He will believe he can steer the PA through choppy Saldanha Bay political waters. This could affect the ANC more than the DA on election day.

The challenge for the next five years will be to stimulate the economy and look for companies that can fill the void left by the closure of Saldanha Steel.

All five municipalities have played an outsize economic role in these regions and all are now in play.

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2021-10-18T07:00:00.0000000Z

2021-10-18T07:00:00.0000000Z

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